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<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT
face=Arial size=2></FONT><BR><?/x-tad-bigger><?/bigger><?/fontfamily><?fontfamily><?param Times New Roman>Integrado
no CICLO DE CONFERÊNCIAS SOBRE DECISÃO, organizado pelo Instituto de
Investigação Interdisciplinar da Universidade de Coimbra em associação com o
INESC Coimbra e a Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra vai
realizar-se a seguinte conferência:<BR> <BR>Sexta-feira, <STRONG>11
de Novembro de 2005, às 10h30</STRONG><BR>Prof. Ralph Keeney (Duke University,
USA) <BR>Título:<?/fontfamily><?fontfamily><?param Arial> <?/fontfamily><?fontfamily><?param Times New Roman>Prescriptive Decision
Analysis<BR>Comentador: Prof. João Clímaco (FEUC)<BR>Local: Sala Keynes (Entrada
livre)<BR><?bigger><?x-tad-bigger> <BR>O Prof. Ralph Keeney é Research
Professor of Decision Sciences na Fuqua School of Business da Duke University.
Tem contribuído nas últimas décadas para a area da análise de decisão com
múltiplos objectivos, assinando alguns dos artigos e livros mais influentes na
area, tais como “Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions”
(com John S. Hammond e Howard Raiffa, Harvard Business School Press), “Decisions
with Multiple Objectives” (com H. Raiffa, Wiley) e “Value-Focused Thinking: A
Path to Creative Decisionmaking” (Harvard University Press). Possui ainda uma
vasta experiência de consultoria de apoio à decisão para organizações (Seagate
Technology, American Express, British Columbia Hydro, Pacific Gas and Electric,
Westinghouse, Proctor and Gamble, Hewlett-Packard, U.S. Department of Commerce,
U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency e Office of Naval
Research, entre outros).<BR> <BR><STRONG>Nesta conferência, Ralph Keeney
falará sobre a teoria e as aplicações da análise de decisão, para a qual
tanto contribuiu</STRONG>. O resumo enviado pelo autor é o
seguinte:<BR> <BR><<The role of decision analysis is to help people
and organizations make better informed choices, especially when the decisions
are complex and the consequences are significant. This presentation will provide
an overview of the theory, procedures, and applications of decision analysis. It
will focus on decisions with multiple objectives, as most complex decisions
involve multiple objectives and a special case is a decision with one objective.
For any analysis, it is necessary to structure the decision problem.<BR>The
essence of this is to specify the objectives, and measures for them, and to
identify the set of alternatives to be considered. The concepts and procedures
of value-focused thinking to promote thoroughness and creativity in specifying
objectives and identifying alternatives is discussed. As the purpose of any
decision is to choose the best alternative, or a very good one, it is useful to
think hard about what the concept of best in that decision situation entails.
Because of this, decision analysis stresses the role and methods to develop
sophisticated value models. The presentation outlines how to develop such models
for specific decisions from basic principles. The concepts of preferential
independence, utility independence, and additive independence are defined and
their implications for value models (i.e. utility functions) are indicated. The
basic information needed to structure a model for a decision problem and to
specify the parameters for that decision model must come from individuals. This
raises questions about the best way to get needed specific judgments from
individuals in different situations. Many procedure have been developed, tested,
and used to get lists of objectives and alternatives and to quantify value
judgments and uncertainties. The field of cognitive psychology has provided much
guidance for pitfalls in these assessment processes to be aware of and manage.
Assessment procedures are improving to account for such circumstances. The
presentation will conclude with a brief summary of a few applications of
prescriptive decision analysis. These will include projects on business
strategy, public policy, life-threatening risks, and personal
decisions.>><BR><BR><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></DIV><?/x-tad-bigger><?/bigger><?/fontfamily></BODY></HTML>