[Divulgacao] Confª. Prof. Ralph Keeney

[Gabinete de Relações com o Exterior]

Integrado no CICLO DE CONFERÊNCIAS SOBRE DECISÃO, organizado pelo Instituto de Investigação Interdisciplinar da Universidade de Coimbra em associação com o INESC Coimbra e a Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra vai realizar-se  a seguinte conferência:
 
Sexta-feira, 11 de Novembro de 2005, às 10h30
Prof. Ralph Keeney (Duke University, USA) 
Título: Prescriptive Decision Analysis
Comentador: Prof. João Clímaco (FEUC)
Local: Sala Keynes (Entrada livre)
 
O Prof. Ralph Keeney é Research Professor of Decision Sciences na Fuqua School of Business da Duke University. Tem contribuído nas últimas décadas para a area da análise de decisão com múltiplos objectivos, assinando alguns dos artigos e livros mais influentes na area, tais como "Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions" (com John S. Hammond e Howard Raiffa, Harvard Business School Press), "Decisions with Multiple Objectives" (com H. Raiffa, Wiley) e "Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking" (Harvard University Press). Possui ainda uma vasta experiência de consultoria de apoio à decisão para organizações (Seagate Technology, American Express, British Columbia Hydro, Pacific Gas and Electric, Westinghouse, Proctor and Gamble, Hewlett-Packard, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency e Office of Naval Research, entre outros).
 
Nesta conferência, Ralph Keeney falará  sobre a teoria e as aplicações da análise de decisão, para a qual tanto contribuiu. O resumo enviado pelo autor é o seguinte:
 
<<The role of decision analysis is to help people and organizations make better informed choices, especially when the decisions are complex and the consequences are significant. This presentation will provide an overview of the theory, procedures, and applications of decision analysis. It will focus on decisions with multiple objectives, as most complex decisions involve multiple objectives and a special case is a decision with one objective. For any analysis, it is necessary to structure the decision problem.
The essence of this is to specify the objectives, and measures for them, and to identify the set of alternatives to be considered. The concepts and procedures of value-focused thinking to promote thoroughness and creativity in specifying objectives and identifying alternatives is discussed. As the purpose of any decision is to choose the best alternative, or a very good one, it is useful to think hard about what the concept of best in that decision situation entails. Because of this, decision analysis stresses the role and methods to develop sophisticated value models. The presentation outlines how to develop such models for specific decisions from basic principles. The concepts of preferential independence, utility independence, and additive independence are defined and their implications for value models (i.e. utility functions) are indicated. The basic information needed to structure a model for a decision problem and to specify the parameters for that decision model must come from individuals. This raises questions about the best way to get needed specific judgments from individuals in different situations. Many procedure have been developed, tested, and used to get lists of objectives and alternatives and to quantify value judgments and uncertainties. The field of cognitive psychology has provided much guidance for pitfalls in these assessment processes to be aware of and manage. Assessment procedures are improving to account for such circumstances. The presentation will conclude with a brief summary of a few applications of prescriptive decision analysis. These will include projects on business strategy, public policy, life-threatening risks, and personal decisions.>>

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